Analysis
Analysis
Findings from company filings and federal spending records, and explainers on how to read them.
-
Company exposure · latest annual reports
Ten public companies get at least 80% of their revenue from Washington. Only one of the five biggest contractors is among them.
We read the latest 10-K of 40 companies that sell to the U.S. government. The ones most exposed to a budget fight are mostly mid-size service and technology firms, not the household-name primes.
-
Analysis · agency concentration
One customer, one agency: nine companies get at least 90% of their federal contract dollars from a single department.
We grouped each company's federal contract obligations by the department that awarded them. Defense contractors lean on one department, and often on one military service. Services firms spread their work across many.
-
Guide · shutdown exposure
Which public companies are most exposed to a government shutdown? Science Applications International and Leidos pair high federal dependence with mostly civilian-agency contracts
We paired each company's reported share of revenue from the U.S. government with the agencies that sign its federal contracts. Civilian agencies matter most in a lapse in appropriations, so the contractors that serve them carry the most direct exposure.
-
Sector story · shipbuilding
Shipbuilders and the Navy: Huntington Ingalls gets 99.9% of its revenue from Washington, and one General Dynamics yard draws more Navy contract money than all of HII
The companies that build the Navy's ships sell to almost no one else. We combined their 10-Ks with a year of federal contract records to show how concentrated that business is.
-
Signature analysis · obligation ratio
What companies say vs. what the contracts show: for eighteen of 22 companies, a year of federal contracts comes to less than the government revenue they report
We matched each company's subsidiaries to federal contract records on USAspending.gov and divided a year of contract obligations by the U.S. government revenue in its 10-K. Most results fall below 1.0. Five are withheld while we check the match.
-
Company story · Palantir
Palantir's U.S. government revenue nearly tripled in four years. Its dependence on Washington barely moved.
Palantir is often described as a government software company. Its 10-Ks show U.S. agencies paying it more every year, and commercial customers growing just as fast.
-
Explainer
Obligations, outlays and revenue: why federal spending numbers never match
The government records a commitment, then a payment. A company records revenue as it does the work. The three happen at different times, so the numbers rarely line up.
-
Contract record · movers
Contract obligations: BWX Technologies up 233.6%, Leonardo DRS down 57.3% in FFY2026
Federal contract obligations to 25 of 35 covered companies rose in FFY2026 through July 3, 2026 compared with the same period of FFY2025. Obligations are commitments, not revenue, but they show where agencies are putting new money.
-
How-to · reading filings
How to read a 10-K's government revenue disclosure: one question, many definitions
We read the latest annual report of 40 companies that sell to the U.S. government. Ten gave no company-wide percentage, and the rest defined “U.S. government” in different ways. Here is what to look for before you compare them.
-
Sector deep dive · government services
The government services sector, ranked by dependence: the median company gets 84% of its revenue from Washington, more than the defense primes' 70%
We ranked the government services companies we cover by the share of revenue their 10-Ks attribute to the U.S. government, then checked which agencies sign their federal contracts. Two of the ten don't disclose a share.
-
Reference
Glossary: the federal-contracting terms behind the numbers
Plain-English definitions of the budget, contracting and accounting terms used across Federal Exposure, from appropriation to XBRL.
-
Definitions · latest annual reports
Five of the sixteen defense companies we cover count foreign military sales as U.S. government revenue. Only General Dynamics says how much.
We read how each defense and aerospace company's 10-K defines its U.S. government revenue. Where a company discloses its foreign military sales, we take them out. Where it doesn't, we say so instead of guessing.
-
Filing watch · weekly
Filing watch: CACI International's new 10-K mentions budget and contract risks 7 times, up from 1
39 covered companies filed a 10-K or 10-Q in the past 90 days. We count how often each filing mentions continuing resolutions, shutdowns, termination for convenience and other federal budget risks, and compare it with the company's previous filing of the same type.
-
Recurring analysis · share changes
The biggest shifts in federal dependence: AeroVironment up 19 points, Boeing down 14
We lined up up to five years of 10-K figures for every company that reports a U.S. government share. Most moved by a few points. The big moves have different causes, and the cause matters more than the size.